The evidence ladder: what to prove before you build.
Different evidence supports different investments. A good conversation does not justify a platform; a paid pilot does not automatically justify a team.
The aim is not certainty. It is to buy the next piece of information at a sensible cost.
Rung 1 — recognition.
A relevant buyer recognises the situation and can describe when it occurs. This is stronger than your own conviction, but it proves only that the problem is intelligible. Spend: interview time, not build money.
Rung 2 — commitment.
The buyer gives something scarce: data, access, a referral, a follow-up meeting or time with the decision owner. Commitment separates politeness from practical interest. Spend: a sample output or manual diagnostic.
Rung 3 — payment.
A buyer pays for a bounded first version. Payment tests priority, trust and commercial language at once. It still does not prove repeatability. Spend: enough to deliver the promise reliably and capture the process.
Rung 4 — repeated delivery.
Several buyers purchase for comparable reasons and receive the result through a recognisable method. You can see which work depends on judgement and which work can be systemised. Spend: templates, automation and a clearer operating model.
Rung 5 — repeatable access.
You can reach relevant buyers through a route that is not dependent on luck or one personal introduction. Only here does a larger product, team or growth system have a stable commercial base.
Match the build to the rung.
- Recognition: interview script and buyer definition.
- Commitment: demonstration or working artefact.
- Payment: manual paid offer.
- Repeated delivery: productised method and operating assets.
- Repeatable access: scalable product and growth investment.
Building above the evidence rung does not create certainty. It converts assumptions into maintenance.